Who actually holds the power to slow AI development down? This week we look at Dario Amodei’s call for frontier labs to pace themselves and the rejection it got from both Trump and Beijing, Anthropic’s modeling of what AI could do to the US economy by 2030, why 42% of companies still can’t tie their AI spend to any ROI, and a threat report finding that serious cyberattacks no longer need serious attackers.
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AI companies want slowdown, but Trump and China say no
The trend: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on frontier labs to slow down AI development, but both Donald Trump and China have rejected the idea.
The details: Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” puts forward a three part plan, which both Elon Musk and Sam Altman have said they agree with, with Altman saying pacing has been a primary topic of discussion at OpenAI in recent weeks. However, Donald Trump posted that AI destroying humanity is a hoax and that a “high-IQ president” is the only guardrail the technology needs.
Why it matters: Amodei told CBS that he’d hand AI over to the “right combination of governments” but it seems like the governments don’t want it. Now that OpenAI has announced it’s not going to IPO in 2026, might slowdown calls be related more to regulatory capture (via government intervention) or hyping model capabilities (and company valuations) while pre-IPO?
Anthropic models how AI might change the economy
The trend: Anthropic modeled how AI could reshape the US economy by 2030, and in the most extreme scenario GDP grows 32% while unemployment among knowledge workers hits 17.9%.
The details: The model turns every job into a bundle of tasks that AI could automate, improve, or leave alone, then scales that across the US economy. They ran 3 scenarios. In the first (modest) one, AI is like the internet, and adds 1.6% to the GDP. In the substantial scenario, the economy grows at twice the normal rate with AI capable of 50% of knowledge work. The third, extreme case assumes AGI and recursive self improvement are here, which leads to 15% yearly GDP growth (doubling the economy every 4.5 years).
Why it matters: In all modeled scenarios GDP rises, so the question is who gets that windfall? In the extreme scenario, the gains are unevenly distributed, with most knowledge workers face either lower wages or unemployment after being displaced by AI.
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Why 42% can’t tie AI spend to ROI
A Tempo survey of over 300 portfolio managers found that while 91% are using AI, they are facing a wide range of challenges. Only 33% use agents for real delivery work like writing code, and many teams that are “using AI” show no advantage over their peers. 46% reported having to duplicate work, and 42% can’t tie AI spend to ROI. Teams that did deploy agents into production were able to finish more projects in under 6 months, but it looks like there are still real challenges to getting the most out of AI, and getting humans out of the loop.
How to counter AI misuse
Anthropic recently put out its most detailed threat intelligence report yet, with the main finding being that “sophisticated attacks no longer require sophisticated attackers.” The cybersecurity skills of new models mean that individuals can now carry out attacks that would have previously required large specialized teams, and more and more of the hacking work is now carried out autonomously by agents. The cases range from cyberattacks and influence operations to biology and building weapons.
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Apple introduces Siri AI, with the upgraded assistant now able to read users’ screens for context, and take actions across apps
OpenAI launches new ChatGPT for Financial Services, targeting the work of junior bankers
Anthropic tells investors it will be profitable for a second straight quarter, if you don’t count revenue shared with distribution partners or the cost of training models
25 Fields Medalists have signed a declaration warning that AI’s usage in mathematics is severely misaligned and detrimental to the science of mathematics
French lab Mistral AI raises $3.5B in new funding, pitching data sovereignty to organizations that want control over their data
Microsoft joins the call for pacing AI development, pledging to build kill switches into AI products as part of an ‘AI Code of Conduct’
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Thanks for reading!
Henry